April Doldrums?

Posted on Apr 15 2015 - 8:34am by Sharpe Trade

What month is this again?

All of this grinding around, makes me wonder if we haven’t jumped forward to July.  It feels like the market-summer-doldrums around here.  The only thing reminding me that it’s truly April is this hefty check that I’m sending to the Government today.

Thirty year note futures, after a brief flurry of activity on yesterday’s PPI, is right back into the middle of the meat-grinder.  I mean seriously, we’re right in the middle of the channel formed at the end of March.  I look at my support / resistance studies (there is more than one type of S/R study you know) … nothing.

I look at my momentum studies?


I look at my trend studies?


I’m beginning to believe all of this chop we’ve seen lately is simply the market adjusting to the lack of Fed purchases.  But really, that’s all it is.  A ‘belief’ in my own mind.  Nothing more. 

However, such low interest rates from the bond markets do provide impetus to stocks, even without said crack-induced haze of active Fed involvement.  You know … zero percent Fed funds rate is still highly accomodative.  The market will adjust, because that’s what markets ‘do’. E-mini futures are up this morning, but we still have to get blast past the 2100 level on the e-mini, or the 2117 on the Spoos.  At the moment, I find my edge slightly favoring the upside in stocks.

But, that level of resistance in stocks will be difficult to break through.

Until it’s not.

I’m actually bearish on Silver prices now, until I see a daily close above $16.48(5).

From the stocktwits stream, even Forex trading lately has been a ‘snooze’. I got knocked out of my NZD/USD for a half-sized loss.  I remain short AUD/JPY.  If things don’t pick up there, I may take some time off trading currencies, and just let my account build up higher through it’s reserve strategy.

Oh wait … you’re account doesn’t build higher with a reserve strategy?

2 Comments so far. Feel free to join this conversation.

  1. NewLife April 15, 2015 at 12:59 pm - Reply

    I’m curious about your thoughts on some of the emerging markets currencies, namely INR and TRY. I’ve been waiting, and waiting for a chance to buy some of those for the income but they just keep getting weaker.

    Every time I think “USD/TRY can’t go too much higher from here” it just blasts off again. USD/INR looks like it’s stabilizing, but, that’s not good enough.

    So, I wait some more.

    • Dan Shy April 15, 2015 at 7:57 pm - Reply

      I ain’t touching them at the moment. King Dollar is decimating them, and I don’t want near that dance, unless it’s on the long side. As the interest rate rise looms? The dollar will CLOBBER any emerging markets, twice as much as it already has.

      If interest rate is off the table until 2017, there should be a wicked spike down, but timing that is for cowboys.

      I’m not using currencies for income or recoup any longer.



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