Temptation

Posted on Dec 1 2016 - 11:28am by Dan

“ô Dieu! sois apaisé envers moi qui suis pécheur!” – Luc 18:13

I’ll admit it.

Despite the bearish view we have had on bond prices for the last several weeks … I was tempted.

A couple of days ago on the December 30’s, around 154’14 or so, I felt the ‘urge’ to buy long-duration.  An entry would have been published here for the Sharpe Income project announcing a purchase of TLT; and then begin to scale in on the various portfolio’s that I manage.  But I resisted.  I know that trading is this endeavour that tempts you to do exactly the wrong thing at precisely the worst moment possible.  And so I resisted

Sure enough, the trend resumed this morning and bonds continue to be beaten like a rented mule.

3 Comments so far. Feel free to join this conversation.

  1. mappy December 2, 2016 at 11:04 am - Reply

    My guess and 2 cents is that they raise rates in two weeks. I’m now short oil and gold.

    • Dan December 2, 2016 at 4:20 pm - Reply

      On an interest rate rise, I can totally see that play.

      Any other trades, as a spread in case it’s off, and they don’t raise ? ? ? (I really think they will raise the rate. It’s all but baked in. But if you entered another trade that bet against an interest rate raise, you’ve offset your risk. In other words, if they raise the rate +2 win, -1 loss. But if they don’t raise the rate, doing something else, and that way, you’re not hit as badly)

      D

  2. mappy December 2, 2016 at 9:50 pm - Reply

    As the market as a whole, I think we head higher. i don’t think interest rates will hurt the over all stock market. We’ve seen banks rise due to possible restrictions being lifted and the possibility of a rate hike.

    I’m currently short oil and gold. from the looks of it……insane. Both gold and oil are completely pinned to key resistance. They’ll either both blast off in my face or I’ll look like a hero. Very flat ending to the day, so it’s really a 50/50 shot. Not exactly good odds.

    Had 2/3 trades that worked on Wed. Was still down for the day! haha!

    more soon.

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