Don’t Over-Think It

Posted on Sep 3 2015 - 3:52pm by Sharpe Trade

Nevermind me. 

I know I have spent time this week … waxing philosophic regarding market direction and economic data.  But in this market, 30 day market direction is apt to change in a heartbeat.  Besides, the truth of the matter, is that no one on this planet can predict the future.  Some of us may guess better than others.  We identify low-risk scenarios.  But that’s all this ever is.

If on were to ask me, you need to now be watching the 1948 level on the December e-mini if you want to encouraged by your long positions (which I happen to posses).  If you want to hedge off, or join the bears?  The 1933.50 level on the December e-mini might encourage you. 

If you were to ask me?  I slightly favor the long side.  I still hold my longs, but am ready to hedge off, and turn somewhat non-directional at any moment; as my advantage over the market has slipped to 631 BPS.

2 Comments so far. Feel free to join this conversation.

  1. NewLife September 3, 2015 at 4:13 pm - Reply

    I’ve been trading in a way I shouldn’t lately, but luckily,I’ve been doing stupid much smaller,and with tighter stops, than my risk management would have me trade were I strictly trading my rules.

    Though I’m short as I write this, I agree with you that there are some key levels that the market is basically toying with at the moment,and which way we’ll break is anyone’s guess. 106.50 on the Q’s is roughly equivalent to 2000 on the SPX,and I wouldn’t even start believing we’re recovering and potentially staying bullish until we’re well above that area. If we start testing any of the recent swing lows, I’d start leaning toward thinking your crash satisfaction being fulfilled…….. then again,we could always just go sideways for a long time 🙂 That’s the option most of us directional traders don’t want to think about.

    • Dan September 4, 2015 at 10:25 am - Reply

      Agreed on every word.

      Just hedged off myself, and have gone pretty non-directional with this mornings strategy

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