Freedom

Posted on Apr 27 2015 - 9:25am by Sharpe Trade

As of last Friday … the meat-grinder market is no more.

We have a trend folks.   With the break lower on the 30 year bond last week, stocks were given the all-clear to move higher.  My defensive skew on equities seems to have worked out well.  I’m fully bullish at this point.

No medium term-trend lasts forever.  But much of the trick of trading is once you have a clearly defined trend?  Not doubting it for a second until the market gives reason to do so.  As has been said very well by others … new traders do not lose because of their losing trades.  Professionals have losing trades.  New traders lose because they cut their winning trades short. 

So do not doubt the trend as long as it remains with us.

The meat-grinder may return.  But for now?  We have a stock market rally.

It is as if we are experiencing 2014 part deux …

3 Comments so far. Feel free to join this conversation.

  1. NewLife April 27, 2015 at 12:17 pm - Reply

    It’s always a tough practice for me to listen to others, including those who I respect including yourself. Luckily, I’ve reduced the number of market voices I will accept to a minimum.

    I woke up and checked my positions, and on the S&P my first thought was “be careful.” My trigger for full-on bullishness might happen when the SPY gets closer to 216, then comes back and bounces from near where it is now. From there the sky is the limit. The QQQ’s look more promising in my mind at the moment, but again, I’ll be more confident when they fail to get below around 109.50. I’m obviously only considering the charts, and not a macro picture or correlations.

    The thing is, I want to be cognizant of what others with more experience are thinking and doing, but not at the cost of second guessing everything I do to the point of neither trading my way, or the way of those I respect and thus missing out on the benefits of consistency.

    Learning while doing is a tough balancing act to say the least. Either way, I could definitely enjoy a continuance of a strong bull market as much as anyone else right now.

  2. Maduane April 28, 2015 at 5:54 pm - Reply

    What are your thoughts on the current Shiller PE of 27 ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9yvrhIl61A

  3. Maduane May 4, 2015 at 7:27 am - Reply

    Thank you for addressing my post in your latest podcast.
    I absolutely agree with you on the assessment, that FT uses a catchy title. This is a common practice in media and i noticed many times – especially on this certain channel – that the title is just the starting point and the narrator comes to a different conclusion.
    I am a little bit disappointed about your devastating (just kidding) judgment, because John Authers is a voice i always enjoyed listening to (and he does put much emphasis on valuation).
    I think the differences are mostly about time frames. The information that there is a high probability the overall market will not do above-average well in the next ten years does not give you much directive for the short term.
    However, great podcast with outstanding thoughts (correlation is not causation, the comparison of blowing up a trading account and injuries).
    I am sorry to hear that Brad is leaving since i think the conversation gained much from his imput.

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