I Spoke Too Soon

Posted on Jun 4 2015 - 8:56am by Sharpe Trade

Some time ago, I stated that at long last, after suffering through an eternity of meat-grinding foulness of this market, we had reached the freedom of a clear trend.

I spoke too soon.

Looking to a daily chart, we popped higher, ever so briefly.  Enough to fill one with hope that a sustained trend would begin.  And … well … that was all the strength this market could produce.

E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures – Daily Chart

Spoke Too Soon 000 Emini

We never escaped.  Not really.  The soul-crushing despair a meat-grinding market is still with us.  

If I examine a two hour chart of the same e-mini, our models show an increasing bear trend.  

If I examine a four hour chart of the same e-mini, our indications are towards a bull trend.

And forgetting all the models andl technical tools, looking at the pure price action on the chart tells you (new folks really need to learn to do this, and at some point, drop all the oscillators) … well … price action is telling you what you need to know.

It’s a meat grinder.  It’s still with us.  Destroying souls.

Even my defensive strategy is suffering some draw-down.  I did place a great hedge on one piece of this strategy, that’s working out beautifully, and giving me a little better performance than the strategy would otherwise normally produce.  But yes … even the defensive strategy is suffering a bit.   That’s ok.  I’m sticking my flag in the ground, and claiming this as the strategy as that which I will use to claw my way out of this draw-down I have going on at the moment.


1 Comment so far. Feel free to join this conversation.

  1. NewLife June 4, 2015 at 1:21 pm - Reply

    Yep. And from the point where the chart above was at, we’ve gone and are going lower at the moment at 12:15 central time. Just hit a new low as I’m typing.

    My soul is one of them being crushed.

    I’m certainly not going to add to my long-term long at the moment, but I wouldn’t be extremely surprised to see another bounce right around today’s low, seeing how this chop tends to alternate on a daily basis lately.

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