A few days ago, I mentioned that in regards to the equity markets … momentum seemed a little tired.
I would say now, without any real meaningful new highs made in the e-mini or the S&P 500, at this point, momentum to the upside is more than a little tired. Now it’s getting fatigued.
I’ll need to see a bit more price action, and we’d need to actually printing lower than 2023 in the December contract before starting to think about turning bearish short-term. I try to never predict, simply look for implied probabilities, and read what the price action is telling me today. I am always willing to change my outlook, as price dictates. I understand that we are staring at that time of year when market participants begin to expect a December year end rally. I’m fully aware of that.
I have no hedges on at this moment, and still hold stocks in the portfolios I manage.
I’m just saying, that for today, momentum seems a bit fatigued. And for larger portfolios that I’d be managing? I am starting to think about a small hedge.