It Means Nothing

Posted on Aug 31 2015 - 11:42am by Sharpe Trade

Overnight, S&P 500 stock market futures sank by as much as 25 points.  At the time of this writing, stocks are down around 17 points on the S&P 500 Index.

I cannot tell you how many articles I have seen in the last 12 hours, with those sort of opening lines; quick to prognosticate that the market will once again begin to dive lower, with all of the dire consequences thereof.  From lower GDP prints, to the death of puppies!

All is lost!

I’m sorry folks.  I’m just not seeing anything, indicating any sort of direction.

Naturally, the headline print and swing of the S&P 500 Index is going increase of late, with the recent increase in volatility.  So “25 points” is pretty meaningless since we were swinging by hundreds of points in the last 10 days.

Pull up a one hour chart of the e-mini S&P 500 Futures.  Do you see a clear direction since the open last night?  Because I don’t.  All of these prognostications based off the numerical print of the Spoos is sort of meaningless.   It means nothing.  And the future remains as it always has existed, an unknown vast fog of nothingness on a snowy morning.

I still have my long positions from last week.  I will still hedge them off, given the opportunity, and if we break lower than 1950 with consistent one hour prints.   If we head higher than 2000 on the September contract?  Then I will simply hold my longs, unhedged.  So as far as direction ?  Personally, I could really care less.  And all of this blathering on about “sinking 25 points” means nothing.

As an aside, it seems that everyone and their brother seems to want to discuss how the crash will progress from this point forward.  It might.  I’ll take action if we do.  But to my mind, that everyone is discussing it?  This seems to indicate that we will not be seeing any such crash.

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