We’re Not Out of the Woods Quite Yet

Posted on Jan 5 2016 - 9:40am by Sharpe Trade

Yesterday, we had stated that 2016 woke up the bear in stocks.

Stock futures then rallied overnight, and almost from the time of that article forwards.

Were we wrong about stock direction?  Were we losing money?

Actually, we may yet be correct about current stock market direction.  Of course we may be wrong.  In truth, we don’t really care whether or not we are ‘right’.  I am of the firm belief that no professional investor or trader takes a lot of stock in ‘being right’.  That is one small piece, of a much larger trading equation. One of the most successful and legendary futures trading programs out there, is ‘accurate’ about 40% of the time.  Sometimes less than that.

And having a ‘bearish stance’ for 3 to 15 days does not necessitate that you are ‘shorting the market’.  It simply means that we have a bearish attitude and we look for shorting opportunities within that particular environment.  It does not require that we switch from ‘buying’ to ‘selling’ on a whim.  It merely reflects our current outlook on the market, and during that time-period we make decisions accordingly.  It is part of a larger process.

However, this morning … we still remain bearish on stocks.  We do not feel we are out of the woods quite yet.  As I had mentioned in the ‘stocktwits stream’, I am still bearish on Disney (DIS) and still bearish on Apple (AAPL), as I have remained since December 22nd, 2015 …

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