My problem is that I’m too much the optimist.
Back in 2015 we had stated that the markets of 2009 through 2014 were a thing of the past. The wonderful, seemingly unending rally that went on and on … year after year? It was done. It was over.
But neither were we overly bearish.
Instead, we stated that we were entering a total meat-grinder when it comes to longer-term direction. A market whose purpose it is to crush your soul. To make inroads into your consciousness. To destroy your self-confidence. To make you question why you ever got into trading in the first place.
And as I was saying at the outset … I am too much the optimist.
See with each new rally, that little idiots voice inside of me whispers … ‘it’s all ok Dan … the chop-fest is finally gone‘.
The meat-grinder never went away. It is still with us. Chopping new traders into bits of sausage, and testing the limits of those of us who trade professionally.
As you know, a few days ago we turned bullish. But the reality is … that the meat-grinder is pounding away at any directional stance. We are now within the very obvious channel on the Spoos between 2108 and 2030. If we clearly break below 2028 on the June E-mini, we were obviously wrong.
Thankfully we know ‘how‘ to be wrong. We are still defensive, playing a defensive correlation strategy that made a little money today ….